Good morning. In a stunning rebuke to House leadership, a group of Republicans has broken ranks with Speaker Mike Johnson and joined Democrats to force a vote on extending Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies—a dramatic development that has sent shockwaves through Capitol Hill. This is my second morning update, but I want you to have the latest always. Subscribe to support my work, I am interviewing members of Congress, getting the scoop, and pushing hard for answers.

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Four House Republicans have now signed onto Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’ discharge petition to bring a clean, three-year ACA subsidy extension to the floor, according to Punchbowl. For Democrats, it’s a significant and unexpected victory. For Johnson, it’s an unmistakable embarrassment—and perhaps the clearest sign yet that his grip on the conference is slipping.

I spoke directly with Tom Suozzi, one of the moderate Democrats who helped persuade a Republican to flip on the issue. His involvement underscores how fragile the Speaker’s coalition has become, particularly among moderates alarmed by the looming ACA cliff.

Inside the House, nerves are raw. One Republican lawmaker put it bluntly when describing the discharge petition to Punchbowl:

“If this isn’t an indictment of the Speaker, I don’t know what is. He has failed this institution and his members.”

Johnson, for his part, is publicly expressing regret while privately deflecting blame. In comments to Laura Weiss of Punchbowl, the Speaker said, “I lament how this turned out in the end,” arguing that leadership worked extensively with moderates to craft a compromise amendment. Johnson insisted that House rules required a “pay-for” to offset the cost of the subsidies and suggested that moderates ultimately chose not to pursue that path.

“They made the choice,” Johnson said, while acknowledging that many members still want a vote. “So we’ll see how it turns out today.”

What’s clear is how it has turned out politically: Johnson lost control of the floor.

A Race Against the Calendar

The stakes are enormous. Without congressional action by December 31, ACA subsidies will lapse for an estimated 22 million Americans who rely on the marketplace for health insurance. Yet the House is running out of time.

Under House rules, seven legislative days must pass before a bill brought forward by a discharge petition can receive a vote. Lawmakers are only scheduled to remain in session until Friday before leaving Washington for a two-week holiday recess. The House is not set to return until January 6, meaning the earliest likely vote would come in the second week of January—after the subsidies have already expired—unless Johnson moves to fast-track the bill.

Senate Resistance Looms

Even if the measure clears the House, its future in the Senate is far from secure. Senate Republicans rejected the same three-year ACA subsidy extension just last week, and Majority Leader John Thune has shown little urgency to revisit the issue.

“We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it,” Thune said when asked about the House discharge petition. He has been openly critical of the COVID-era ACA subsidies and has argued for a broader overhaul rather than a straight extension.

That position leaves millions of Americans—and a deeply fractured House Republican Conference—stuck in the middle.

The Bottom Line

This episode is more than a policy fight. It is a referendum on Johnson’s leadership. Discharge petitions are rare precisely because they represent a breakdown of trust between leadership and rank-and-file members. That four Republicans were willing to defy their Speaker on an issue of this magnitude speaks volumes.

For Democrats, it’s a tactical win that highlights GOP dysfunction. For Johnson, it’s a warning sign flashing bright red: control of the gavel does not guarantee control of the House.