Good morning, everyone. We are now nine days into the government shutdown, and even Republican insiders are privately conceding they have overplayed their hand. The latest polls and private conversations tell the same story: Americans are blaming the GOP for this stalemate, and the party’s behind-the-scenes pressure campaign to force Democrats to fold has fallen flat.

Meanwhile, major court battles over Trump’s National Guard deployments in Portland and Chicago are unfolding today, and we will be watching those closely.

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With that, here’s what you misseD:

  • Democrats have gained momentum in the government shutdown fight, as early polls show voters blaming Trump and Republicans more for the stalemate; GOP divisions over military pay, furloughed worker compensation, and ObamaCare subsidies are putting them on the defensive while Democrats remain unified in demanding an extension of Affordable Care Act tax credits before reopening the government.
  • According to Politico, Republicans privately admit they were too optimistic that Democrats would cave, expecting moderates like Sen. Mark Warner to fold two weeks ago, but eight days into the shutdown Democrats remain united on extending ACA subsidies with no off-ramp in sight.
  • A Republican caller criticized Speaker Mike Johnson on C-SPAN, expressing disappointment in him and the GOP for not recalling the House into session, accusing Johnson of avoiding action for mere show.
  • A C-SPAN caller pressed Speaker Mike Johnson on his loyalty to Trump, asking if he’s ever opposed any of Trump’s policies and asserting that “Trump is a dictator,” suggesting Johnson’s actions ultimately don’t matter.
  • Trump accidentally posted a private message to Attorney General Pam Bondi on Truth Social urging her to indict James Comey, sending it to over 10 million followers; Bondi was reportedly furious, and Trump later tried to downplay the incident and praise her as Comey was indicted days later.
  • When asked if he’s considered suspending habeas corpus, Trump appeared unfamiliar with the term, responding “Suspending who?” before saying he’d “leave that to Kristi,” referring to DHS Secretary Kristi Noem.
  • Rep. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) said growing numbers of Republicans are ready to back a bipartisan effort to force the release of the Jeffrey Epstein files, predicting a “jail break” of over 100 GOP members in support of a discharge petition led by Reps. Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna, as Speaker Mike Johnson faces scrutiny for delaying a vote and swearing in a new Democrat who could tip the balance.
  • The IRS is furloughing nearly half its workforce as the shutdown reaches day nine, following another failed Senate vote to reopen the government and continued GOP refusal to discuss health care until Democrats accept a short-term spending plan.
  • Trump’s announcement of an Israel-Hamas ceasefire deal was broadly welcomed, but major doubts remain over his 20-point plan’s viability, including Hamas’s disbandment and Gaza’s future governance, as Israel’s government still must formally approve it amid internal opposition.
  • Hundreds of National Guard troops remain stationed near Chicago as a judge prepares to rule on the legality of Trump’s deployment, which Illinois and city officials call unconstitutional; the move, part of Trump’s broader crackdown on Democratic-led cities, has drawn sharp criticism from Gov. JB Pritzker and Mayor Brandon Johnson, who accuse the president of authoritarian overreach.
  • Protesters blocked downtown Chicago streets to oppose Trump’s immigration policies and the deployment of National Guard troops from Texas to support ICE operations, marching along Michigan Avenue before dispersing peacefully with no reported arrests.
  • Chicago and Portland are challenging Trump’s National Guard deployments in court today, with hearings in Chicago and San Francisco as both cities seek to block or uphold restraining orders against troop deployments they argue are unwanted and unlawful.
  • Trump and the White House were caught using footage of ICE raids in Florida, identifiable by palm trees, in a video claiming to show “chaos” in Chicago, prompting accusations of deception from Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s team as the state fights Trump’s National Guard deployment in court over alleged violations of federal law.
  • Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem criticized country singer Zach Bryan’s new song “Bad News” as “completely disrespectful” to ICE and law enforcement, while Bryan defended it as a patriotic reflection on America’s divisions and love for the country.
  • A Florida Republican lawmaker introduced a bill to cut state funding from public colleges that refuse to rename certain campus roads after conservative activist Charlie Kirk, who was assassinated last month, requiring compliance within 90 days of enactment or risk losing funds.
  • Hungarian novelist László Krasznahorkai won the 2025 Nobel Prize in Literature for his “compelling and visionary” body of work that affirms the power of art amid chaos, becoming Hungary’s first laureate since 2002 and joining past winners like Ernest Hemingway and Toni Morrison.
  • The U.S. divorce rate fell 28% between 2012 and 2022, but 14 states — led by Arkansas, Wyoming, and Kentucky — still report significantly higher divorce rates than the national average, according to new Census Bureau data showing the South continues to have the highest rates of marital dissolution.
  • Good news:

  • Nineteen pine martens have been reintroduced to Exmoor National Park for the first time in a century as part of a rewilding effort led by the Devon Wildlife Trust and National Trust, marking a major milestone in restoring the species to southwest England’s woodlands.
  • A new study using nighttime “blackwater” photography has revealed a surprising form of cooperation between juvenile fish and sea anemones, showing young fish carrying stinging anemones for protection while helping the anemones travel farther — a never-before-seen mutualism that expands scientists’ understanding of marine behavior.
  • After four decades and $84 million in cleanup efforts, Michigan’s Lake Muskegon has been officially removed from the Great Lakes’ list of polluted “Areas of Concern.” Nearly 200,000 cubic yards of toxic sediment and over 100,000 tons of sawmill waste were cleared, restoring the lake’s ecosystem and transforming it into a hub for recreation, tourism, and local economic growth.
  • See you this evening.

    — Aaron